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4 Keys to Watch on the US-Mexico Natural Gas Boom

Sometimes geography just works.

That’s certainly the case in North American natural gas markets today.

To the north you have America—a new natural gas superpower. So super that producers have cratered prices for their product amid a wash of new supply coming on from shale plays around the country.

And to the south there’s Mexico. The “lazy cousin” whose petroleum industry has squandered its cash (or had the cash squandered for it by the wider federal government). To the point where a lack of reinvestment in producing infrastructure has cratered production by 15% since 2008. At a time when politicians are desperate to move away from expensive oil-fired generation for electricity.

Sounds like a match made in Business School 101. The obvious solution to both problems being a few short miles of pipeline to redirect ample U.S. gas supplies south, and ample Mexican gas prices north.

But this is far from just a satisfying economics exercise. If U.S. natgas exports to Mexico can indeed be achieved at scale, it could represent one of the biggest investible opportunities of the decade.

“At scale” is exactly the plan right now. At least six new or expanded export projects are on the books, with capacity to send an additional 3.5 billion cubic feet per day of gas to Mexico. Doubling current export capacity.

These added flows could bring total US-Mexico exports to several billion cubic feet per day.…




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