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Will Bearish Sentiment Break OPEC+?

The oil market has gone decidedly bearish, and sentiment is growing that Moscow isn’t going to be able to play ball much longer with OPEC cuts. The World Bank has slashed its economic growth outlook for Russia for 2019 over lower crude production after it agreed with OPEC to cut some 300,000 bpd and a major contamination problem led to a disruption at the Druzhba pipeline. Russia’s GDP growth is now set at an expected 1.2%, down from 1.5%. To make things worse, while everyone has been focused on the supply side of this equation, bearish sentiment has been boosted by the demand narrative. Consumption levels have been dropping thanks to fears of a global economic growth slowdown. Economic slowdowns in China and Germany, the never-ending Brexit debacle, and now an even more intensified trade war are all contributing to that negative picture. Saudi Arabia also said on Friday that OPEC was close to agreeing to extend production cuts past June, but they haven’t yet sealed the deal with non-OPEC countries (i.e. Russia).

Will There Be a War With Iran?

It’s a million-dollar question and one that is impossible to answer definitively. One can, however, assess the situation from various external perspectives and an even greater number of proxies involved in this brewing conflict. If this conflict does escalate, Iran warns that oil prices could go above $100 per barrel as soon as the first shot is fired in the Persian Gulf. Technically, that shot was…




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