• 4 minutes Is $60/Bbl WTI still considered a break even for Shale Oil
  • 7 minutes Oil Price Editorial: Beware Of Saudi Oil Tanker Sabotage Stories
  • 11 minutes Mueller Report Brings Into Focus Obama's Attempted Coup Against Trump
  • 15 minutes Wonders of Shale- Gas,bringing investments and jobs to the US
  • 12 hours Apartheid Is Still There: Post-apartheid South Africa Is World’s Most Unequal Country
  • 4 hours Visualizing How Much Oil Is In An Electric Vehicle (Hint: a heckuva lot)
  • 4 hours Theresa May to Step Down
  • 5 hours Look at the LONGER TERM bigger picture of international oil & gas. Ignore temporary hiccups.
  • 15 hours Total nonsense in climate debate
  • 15 hours IRAN makes threats, rattles sabre . . . . U.S. makes threats, rattles sabre . . . . IRAQ steps up and plays the mediator. THIS ALLOWS BOTH SIDES TO "SAVE FACE". Then serious negotiations start.
  • 15 hours Evil Awakens: Fascist Symbols And Rhetoric On Rise In Italian EU Vote
  • 18 hours Will Canada drop Liberals, vote in Conservatives?
  • 19 hours Trump needs to educate US companies and citizens on Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army. This is real ECONOMIC WARFARE. To understand Chinese warfare read General Sun Tzu's "Art of War" . . . written 500 B.C.
  • 19 hours Canada's Uncivil Oil War : 78% of Voters Cite *Energy* as the Top Issue
  • 15 hours Apple Boycott in China
  • 11 hours Australian Voters Reject 'Climate Change' Politicians
  • 2 hours Why is Strait of Hormuz the World's Most Important Oil Artery

Why Oil Bears Should be Alert to the Possibility of a Reversal Next Week

Regular readers will be aware that I have, for the last few weeks, been generally bearish on the price of oil, and for two main reasons. The strength of the dollar had until recently gone unnoticed in much of the financial media, but it has been a sharp climb and, while the inverse relationship between the dollar and oil is not a perfect, tick for tick thing, a high dollar does put a cap on oil’s upside potential and keeps pressure to the downside. In addition, the main reason for oil’s climb a month or so ago, the potential agreement by OPEC to limit production, is not a reality yet and still faces significant hurdles. That bearish view has worked out well, but there is a good chance that it will change in the next few trading days, as both things that have driven oil down look like changing.

(Click to enlarge)

Figure 1: Dollar Index 6 Month Chart. Source: Marketwatch.com

Firstly, there are signs that the dollar’s rise is overdone and that the direction is about to change. In terms of the dollar index, significant resistance has been met just above 99 and, as the chart above shows, upward momentum has ceased over the last few days. That is hardly surprising. The move in the dollar has been driven by the expectation of a Fed hike in interest rates, but that now looks fully priced in. The market can be expected to start to adjust for the, admittedly slight, possibility that the U.S. central bank will once again back away from the tough decision to risk a market selloff, and will further delay that hike.

Secondly, and probably more importantly, the OPEC meeting at which talks of an agreement will take place is at the end of November, and as it approaches a change of tone in the chatter surrounding that meeting looks likely. I have written in the past about the tendency of the OPEC nations to talk their book and that will probably be a factor over the next few weeks. Even if, and maybe especially if, the members see the obstacles to an actual agreement as insurmountable, it will be in all of their interests to keep those opinions to themselves and talk up the chances of a production freeze, or even a cut.

Since the potential deal was announced, OPEC members, and the Saudis in particular, as demonstrated by their last production numbers, have ramped up production to take advantage of the spike in prices. If they see a deal as difficult to achieve or enforce there is every reason to keep a positive spin…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News