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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Can Crude, NatGas Break Out Of Their Range?

Shale

Both December Crude Oil and December Natural Gas markets are experiencing weakness at this time for various reasons. Crude oil, for example, has been pressured off its recent high because of uncertainty over whether OPEC can get all of its members on the same page as to the size of its proposed production cuts.

The December Natural Gas futures contract has been extremely volatile and bearish because of weather concerns. Temperatures have been unseasonably warm, creating problems on the demand side of the equation. Furthermore, there are even worries that this warm temperature pattern will continue into late December and perhaps early January.

This week’s article takes a look at the current chart patterns on the weekly charts and attempts to identify key value areas that may be attractive to buyers. These are also areas that could keep the bullish tones in these markets intact.

(Click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum is now pointing lower.

The short-term range is $43.77 to $52.22. Its retracement zone at $48.00 to $47.00 is the primary downside target. The main range is $41.58 to $52.22. Its retracement zone is $46.90 to $45.62. Combining the two retracement zones gives us a potential support cluster at $47.00 to $46.90.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $49.26, the direction of the crude oil market today is likely to be determined by…

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