A significant cooldown has arrived, with the jet stream from Canada plunging this weekend, which will allow the eastern United States to experience its first taste of fall for much of next week.
The ten-day outlook in terms of the thermal aspect shows a cold airmass will encompass all U.S. Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast, where temperatures could hover 8 to 15 degrees below normal through the first week of October.
E.C. Operational Forecast (with gray 32 degrees Fahrenheit line) shows the blast of cold air pouring in from Canada this weekend and will cover much of the eastern U.S. through Oct. 6.
As for frost risks over the next ten days, Reuters' commodity desk said:
"Although the greatest cool anomalies should be observed in Missouri and surrounding states, the risk for occasional and short-lasting overnight frost risks are on the rise across the upper Midwest. As for now, confidence in frost appearance is rather low, but the situation should be monitored and updated over the next week."
The National Weather Service announced a moderate to high risk for cooler temperatures from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic between Oct. 1 and 7.
According to The Washington Post, "the surge of cold set to enter the eastern U.S. just one week after scores of locations in interior New England and western New York set record lows in the 20s and 30s. The chill even reached the Mid-Atlantic, where Washington observed lows in the 40s on four straight days in September for the first time since 1950."
A chilly start to October will result in energy usage demand to increase. Heating degree day (HDD), the measure designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat a building, is set to rise in the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast in the coming days.
Oilprice.com says the "coming winter season and the end of the hurricane season that has disrupted LNG operations and exports along the U.S. Gulf Coast, coupled with recovering gas demand for industrial activities in Asia and Europe, are likely to send natural gas prices to above $3 per million British thermal units."
The latest "rollercoaster" in nat gas prices was "indicative of a demand/supply picture in a so-called 'shoulder season' when power demand for air conditioning begins to wane, but demand for heating is not there yet. So prices reacted to the immediate drivers—storage, feed supply for LNG, and storm-induced shut-ins," said the energy blog.
In seasonal terms, nat gas futures are set to rise as the rapid onset of fall-like conditions begins.
Readers may recall, we noted, at the start of September, how the 45-day HDD for the U.S. signaled energy demand to heat structures was set to increase. Now it's a waiting game for nat gas futures to surge on the bullish fundamental shift.
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