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Kurt Cobb

Kurt Cobb

Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has also appeared in The Christian Science…

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Was The Aramco IPO Destined To Fail?

Wafra oil field

Since late 2016 the financial media has been abuzz about what would likely be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) ever: The sale of 5 percent of the world's largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, which is wholly owned by the government of Saudi Arabia. The IPO with its required disclosures would shed light on the inner workings of the company for the first time since it was nationalized in 1980 and lead to independent verification of its oil reserves and other assets.

It would be a large first step in unmasking the murky world of national oil companies (NOCs), the reserves of which are thought to represent 90 percent of the world's total reserves of oil and natural gas according to one estimate.

With estimates that Saudi Aramco is worth $2 trillion, the sale of 5 percent to public shareholders would represent a potential $100 billion, a valuation that would make such an IPO an all-time record and result in roughly $1 billion in fees for the lucky bankers handling the deal.

All that anticipation, however, has now come crashing down as the Saudi government seeks the funds it might have gotten from an IPO through other avenues. So, what happened?

First, oil prices rose significantly. When the Saudi government officially confirmed that it was seeking an IPO for Aramco in October 2016, Brent crude, the world benchmark, averaged just under $50 per barrel that month. While the IPO was being considered earlier that year, oil had dropped below $30. Last week it closed just below $75.

The government was thought to be desperate to reduce its rising deficits—due in large part to a precipitous drop in oil prices—by selling a part of the company. That seems an unlikely reason for the sale since the Saudis have ample money in a sovereign wealth fund and substantial credit with major banks. The stated reason was a plan to diversify the Saudi economy.

With oil prices 50 percent higher than when the plan was proposed, rising revenues may be sufficient to justify waiting and may be able to provide investment funds for other purposes. (The Saudi government finances itself largely from oil revenues.) Related: Kuwait Oil Production Hits 18-Month High

Second, it's possible the Saudis now believe that investors would not be willing to pay as much as the Saudis want for a variety of reasons that include:

• Concern about the stability of the Saudi regime (with whom investors would become business partners).
• The high taxes and royalties paid by the company to the government.
• The lack of diversification because almost all of Aramco's operations are in Saudi Arabia and thus subject to upheavals and conflicts in the Middle East.
• The role of Saudi Arabia as an OPEC member and as the world's largest swing producer which leads it to adjust its output for geopolitical reasons and not merely to maximize profits for the company.

These are merely a sampling of concerns discussed in the media.

But, I believe that perhaps the most important reason the Saudis are reconsidering the IPO is that the government simply does not want to subject the company to an independent audit that would for the first time since 1980 determine whether the country has been telling the truth about its oil reserves.

Saudi Arabia must have significant remaining reserves in order to pump at rates that make it the number one or number two producer in the world, alternating with Russia for the top position. But that doesn't really tell us the relative size of Saudi reserves since Russia claims less than a third of the reserves that Saudi Arabia does and yet produces nearly the same amount of oil on a daily basis.

Despite the fact that one of the world's largest producers of oil has not been audited in 38 years, official sources of energy information such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency have been taking Saudi Aramco's public claims about its reserves at face value and including them in their official statistics.

In fairness, what choice do these agencies have? They have no standing or power to compel an independent audit. Related: Houthis Prepared To Halt Oil Tanker Attacks

It might not be so bad if Saudi Arabia were the only case of this. But wherever there exists a government-owned oil company that monopolizes oil development in a nation, there is likely to be secrecy about reserves. The national oil companies of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela represent some of largest corporations in the world. But because they are not publicly traded, they are not subject to the kind of scrutiny that large international companies such as ExxonMobil and Shell are. Wikipedia provides a lengthy list of NOCs demonstrating just how far the shroud of secrecy extends across the industry.

(Of course, not all these companies escape scrutiny. For example, the Argentine national oil company, known as YFP, in which the government holds a 51 percent stake, is traded on the New York Stock Exchange and thus required to adhere to disclosure and audit standards for listed companies. But most national oil companies are not publicly traded.)

The recent retreat of Saudi Arabia from its planned IPO is not only an important financial event. It's an important informational event in that it highlights the opacity of the world's oil producers. It should remind us that the numbers we accept from major governmental and international organizations regarding oil reserves worldwide are largely based on unverified sources, namely, the word and only the word of most of the world's national oil companies.

That we continue to plan our futures—our cities, our transportation systems, or industrial developments—based on such numbers should be a cause for alarm and not the complacency we are currently exhibiting.

By Kurt Cobb via Resource Insights

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  • Mamdouh G Salameh on August 01 2018 said:
    Since January 2018 I have been one of the first if not the very first expert who has been saying that Saudi Arabia will eventually withdraw the IPO of Saudi Aramco altogether for two reasons. One is risk of US litigation and the other is Saudi proven oil reserves.

    Saudi investments in the United States could be at risk by the legislation passed overwhelmingly by the US Senate and the US House of Representatives in 2016 that would allow families of September 11 victims to sue the Saudi government for damages. The law allows the removal of the sovereign immunity preventing lawsuits against countries whose citizens were found to be involved in the attacks. The minute one law case is launched by an American citizen against the Saudi government, all Saudi assets in the US will be frozen.

    Another major reason why the IPO is being withdrawn is because Saudi valuation of of its IPO was $100 bn when Wall Street and other financial houses estimated it between $50-$75 bn. Moreover, foreign investors would not even consider the IPO without an independent auditing of Saudi proven reserves. This raises the question as to how large are the Saudi proven oil reserves.

    Saudi Arabia claims that its proven oil reserves stand at 266.2 billion barrels (bb), the world’s second biggest after Venezuela’s when I and other experts have estimated them as ranging from 74-80 bb.

    Saudi Arabia would rather withdraw the IPO altogether rather than submit its reserves to independent auditing. The damage to its credibility would far outweigh any benefits, if any, it could have gotten from the sale of the IPO.

    Notwithstanding the above reasons, Saudi Arabia did not need to sell the IPO to get $100 bn. It could have saved $80 bn by eliminating subsidies on gasoline, water and electricity and also by reaching a peaceful settlement in Yemen costing it an estimated $72 a year.

    Saudi Aramco is the jewel in the crown in the Saudi oil industry. Keeping it totally under Saudi ownership enables Saudi decision-makers to decide oil policy and the freedom of global investments without any foreign interference and without any risk of litigation by the United States.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
  • Bonaventure Stephen Gomes on August 02 2018 said:
    It is self-evident that the Saudis have become complacent after oil prices have moved up. The oil markets have changed in favor of oil-producing countries. The country has gone beyond recovery mode. The country, and Saudi Aramco, will wake up again when the next alarm bells ring.
  • James Rose on August 06 2018 said:
    Its in Aramco's interest to create these doubts about going public because IPO anticipation fuels the belief in KSA engineering higher oil prices in time for the event - which increases planning spending on drilling. By spreading the idea that there will not be an IPO, they further stretch out the period of under-investment in new drilling, creating the correct conditions for extremely high prices when they do go public. Nothing is off the table.

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