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Uncertainty in Oil Markets Amid Rumors of a Ceasefire in Gaza

Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict

Oil prices had a particularly volatile Thursday, tanking on Qatari rumors that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire deal, and then recovering shortly afterward when the source of the rumor, Al Jazeera, removed the tweet suggesting the ceasefire. The markets are particularly sensitive to rumors these days, making them extremely volatile. While there has been no confirmation of any ceasefire deal, later on Thursday night, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron told reporters that Britain might officially recognize a Palestinian state without waiting for the outcome of talks between Israel and the Palestinians if a ceasefire were to be forthcoming.

The other big market-moving geopolitical news is tensions with Iran, following the death of three American soldiers at a base in Jordan, which the U.S. has blamed on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is linked to Iran-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah. The drone used in the attack is also said to have been Iranian-made. Earlier this week, Biden said he had determined a response for these deaths, with officials confirming later that there would be a series of targeted attacks on Iran proxies in Syria and Iraq. However, following the incident, Kata’ib Hezbollah said it had suspended attacks under pressure from Tehran and Baghdad. The group has launched dozens of attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and ultimately it will be blamed for the death of the three soldiers in Jordan. The…

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