• 3 minutes Nucelar Deal Is Dead? Iran Distances Itself Further From ND, Alarming Russia And France
  • 5 minutes Don Jr. Tweets name Ukraine Whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella. Worked for CIA during Obama Administration, Hold over to Trump National Security Counsel under Gen McCallister, more . . . .
  • 9 minutes Shale pioneer Chesepeak will file bankruptcy soon. FINALLY ! The consolidation begins
  • 12 minutes China's Blueprint For Global Power
  • 2 hours EU has already lost the Trump vs. EU Trade War
  • 1 day Crazy Stories From Round The World
  • 1 day Science: Only correct if it fits the popular narrative
  • 1 min Everything You Need To Know About Trump
  • 2 days Iran Burning: Shock Gas Price Hike Triggers Violent Protests After Subsidy Cuts
  • 10 hours Pope Proposes New Sin: Thou Shalt Not Destroy The Harmony Of The Environment
  • 18 hours IEA predicts oil demand will grow annually at 1 million barrels a day for the next 5 years
  • 2 days Atty General Barr likely subpeona so called whistleblower and "leaker" Eric Ciaramella
  • 3 hours Water, Trump, and Israel’s National Security
  • 1 day Impeachment Nonsense
  • 20 hours ‘If it saves a life’: Power cut to 1.5 million Californians
  • 2 days What are the odds of 4 U.S. politicians all having children working for Ukraine Gas Companies?
  • 2 days Who writes this stuff? "Crude Prices Swing Between Gains, Losses"

Trade Wars: It’s Time To Dial It Down A Bit

Trade War

Remember when oil markets used to be driven by oil headlines? What quaint times. We used to write about things like Middle East supply outages, OPEC deals and crude backlogs in Cushing. We’d discuss the financial health of frackers, daily supply/demand balances, refinery maintenance season and monthly Chinese imports. It was all very last season. 2017 stuff. And in August of 2019 where trade disputes and inverted yield curves rule, it somehow feels passé.

Brent crude oil has tumbled about 20% since April and it’s hard not to credit the deterioration of US/China relations for much of the slide. While it’s true that daily supply/demand balances have turned bearish in the last few months, it’s difficult to imagine oil prices taking this sort of tumble in the absence of a negative macro backdrop. Crude production in Libya has dropped sharply this summer while Venezuela is producing just 760k bpd and Iranian exports have been strangled basically to 0 bpd. There are certainly some bullish spots in the crude market which physical traders have dealt with by keeping prompt Brent and US gasoline structure comfortably backwardated. This week the front 1-month Brent spread traded near +50 cents while the prompt 1-month US gasoline spread was near +11 cents, so perhaps it’s not all that bad out there. Nevertheless, these tight spots in the physical markets are being overwhelmed by macro and if you happen to be bullish on oil you certainly didn’t…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News