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The Weakest Link In The OPEC+ Production Cut Deal

COVID-19 Market Impact

- With Henry Hub prices in the $1.80-$1.90 range, there is concern that Haynesville LNG exports could experience a 20% decline in output towards 2023, according to Rystad Energy. Analysts predict only an average of 20 horizontal wells will be producing and that gross gas output at Haynesville will fall from 12.5 billion to 10 billion cubic feet per day through 2020-2022. If Henry Hub prices were in the $2.20-$2.40 range, that could account for 30 horizontal wells producing and a more stabilizing 12.5 billion cubic feet of production during that same period.

- Iran’s daily output has now dropped below 2 million bpd, as of April - or 53,000 bpd less than March production, according to OPEC (down from over 3.8 million bpd prior to US sanctions).

- The EIA adjusted its 2020 oil production outlook for the United States, which it now sees at 11.7 million bpd - 500,000 bpd less than 2019 levels. Should the forecast prove accurate, this would be the first annual production decline in the United States since 2016.

- Saudi Arabia instructed Aramco to cut another 1 million bpd of oil production in June in addition to the OPEC+ promised cuts to more quickly drawdown global inventories. Because of the additional production from Saudi Arabia in April when it was pumping as much as it could, that 1 million bpd extra cut has already been diluted.

- To the surprise of nearly no one, Iraq has failed to reach an agreement with Big Oil…





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