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The Very Real Possibility Of $30 Oil

Market Movers (JULI)

- Nothing should depress oil markets more this week than Goldman Sachs’ cutting its 2020 global oil demand growth forecast – again - to -150,000 bpd, when it had previously forecast growth of 0.55 million bpd, and before that, 1.1 million bpd. So, for the first time, we’re in negative territory, and it’s not just Goldman. IHS Markit also said this week that oil demand will likely be lower than in 2019 - even if H2 2020 sees a recovery. IHS is forecasting global oil demand at 3.8 million bpd lower than a year ago, thanks to coronavirus. Rystad, too, revised its forecast on Thursday, estimating that oil demand growth will come in at 500,000 bpd for the year, down from 1.1 million bpd that it estimated in February. Can anyone say ‘$30 oil’?

- There was hope that an OPEC+ production cut of 1.5 million more barrels per day would save oil. But Russia refused to cooperate and prices have since plunged by 9 percent. Of the 1.5 million in extra cuts, 500,000 bpd would have had to come from non-OPEC members, and non-OPEC’s largest member is Russia. OPEC delegates have since hinted that the OPEC+ alliance might be over.

- Aramco’s shares had fallen 2% - the lowest since the IPO - on Sunday as coronavirus fears set in. Shares have come up slightly since then, to 33 riyals, compared to 32.50 on Sunday.

- PetroChina, China’s top gas producer and piped gas supplier, has suspended some natural…





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  • Wolf Horn on March 07 2020 said:
    Imagine <$25 I wrote two weeks ago in this forum - now we are approaching this milestone rapidly ...

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