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The Record Breaking Natural Gas Rally In Europe

1. China Power Crunch Indicate Underlying Weakness

- Whilst power curbs are not a novelty to China, the fact that they are taking place right now and not during winter indicates that China’s readiness for the winter heating season amid low coal stocks and strong demand might be questionable.

- At least two thirds of China’s steel production has already experienced power curbs this year as 11 provinces mandated production controls for H2 2021.

- As output is constrained primarily in industry-heavy regions, the power cuts are pushing commodity prices even higher – aluminum’s ongoing surge is a case in point.

- According to Morgan Stanley estimates, some 35% of China’s cement production and 30-40% of its petrochemical industry have been impacted by power constraints.

2. Angola Production Falls to Lowest in 30 Years

- Along with fellow African producer Nigeria, Angola has been one of the key underperformers of the OPEC+ production targets as it has continuously produced less than expected since September 2020.

- Angola is set to record its lowest export rate in at least 15 years, with only 31 cargoes scheduled to load over November, i.e. slightly below 1 million b/d.

- Angola’s largest fields are well past their plateau production and exploration efforts, primarily led by ENI and TotalEnergies, have been insufficient to replenish reserves.

- The coronavirus pandemic has added…

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