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The Other Big Winner Of The OPEC Deal

The OPEC/OPEC+ agreement is now all the news in the oil sector. This substantial feat is accompanied by ample media coverage and OPEC’s attitude towards growing US crude production remained one of the main talking point throughout. One might have gotten used to the United States’ sole position as the one marking massive year-on-year output increases and stoking (somewhat unrealistic) fears that American crude will flood the global markets. In fact, it might have been the US and Canada that are disrupting the markets – just as much the technological advances of the shale gale shook energy analysts, massive tar sands production buildups could be a case study in circumspect success. To understand why this did not materialize, let’s analyze Canada’s main crude oil trends.

1. Easing of output curtailments

As opposed to the United States whose government fully embraced the cause of energy independence, Canadian producers are in a much less privileged position. They must contend with production curtailments mandated by the government of Alberta and pro-environment policies put forward by the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau. There has been some improvement though as the government of Alberta has gradually moved the production cap from the initial 3.56mbpd announced for January 2019 to 3.74mbpd in August 2019, marking five output cap increases along the way. The current setup is still far from ideal as still 150kbpd of crude is…




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