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The Obvious Play For This White House Policy Change

Attempting to trade based on pronouncements and policies coming from the Trump administration can leave many people scratching their heads. I have pointed out on multiple occasions that the frequent mixed messages and rapid flip-flopping of the White House, combined with the tendency of markets to overreact to news, makes trading in the opposite direction of a move prompted by a tweet or casual comment from POTUS a winning strategy in most cases. Sometimes though, a cigar is just a cigar, and the obvious play on a policy change is the best approach. That looks to be the case regarding the recent change in regulations on methane emissions.

Many of the policies aimed at pleasing specific industries that have come from this administration have not benefited the stocks concerned, while others have not been universally cheered by the targeted industry. The trade war was originally touted as a benefit to the U.S. steel industry, for example, but stock in U.S. Steel (X) has lost two-thirds of its value over the last year, and the big five auto markets are universally opposed to the relaxing of the so-called cafe standards for fuel economy.

Energy policy so far shows signs of both the effects of unintended consequences similar to the impact of the trade war on steel and some industry reluctance to the policy change similar to that in the car business.

Despite a very pro-fossil fuel approach from the President, energy has been, as this Reuters piece points out, not…



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