• 2 minutes U.S. Presidential Elections Status - Electoral Votes
  • 5 minutes “Cushing Oil Inventories Are Soaring Again” By Tsvetana Paraskova
  • 7 minutes United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place
  • 5 mins Biden suspends oil and gas drilling on Federal Lands for 60 days for review.
  • 3 mins Joe Biden's Presidency
  • 17 mins SUVs are conquering the world
  • 1 min 'Get A Loan,' Commerce Chief Tells Unpaid Federal Workers
  • 17 hours Jim Rickards: Brace for a Great Escape from the Dollar and a Flood of Money into Gold and Bitcoin
  • 3 hours BIG TECH or BIG BROTHER?? 1984 to Become Reality ??
  • 18 hours China sends warplanes thru Taiwan airspace. Joe's reponse . . . .
  • 1 hour Rejoining Paris Climate Accord is Devestating
  • 4 hours Bankruptcy in the Industry
  • 8 hours Aramco in Talks on $2 Bln Loan from Japan
  • 23 hours The World Economic Forum & Davos - Setting the agenda on fossil fuels, global regulations, etc.
  • 1 day GENERAL NORMAN SCHWARZKOPF: The Third Tour
  • 1 day Biden's Green Energy Policy

The Key Risks For Oil In February

Oil markets are subject to some compelling story lines right now. Trump/Xi relations are holding risk markets hostage. The US Fed seems to be in a holding pattern on rate hikes after substantially tightening its balance sheet in 2018. OPEC+ is aggressively cutting production and Venezuela’s humanitarian and political crisis is fully boiling over.

Yet, a quick glance at an oil price chart suggests that markets have ample shock absorbers on both ends of the spectrum and seem content to lazily move sideways with Brent at $60. Closing prices have enjoyed a $4 closing range since January 10th ($59-$63) and January appears to be ending with a sideways whimper after beginning with a bang. Clearly, we need the main story lines to develop further for the market to enjoy some sort of bullish or bearish momentum and break the sideways groove.

So where are we on our key risk themes as we turn to February?

With respect to global trade, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin gave a bullish jolt to stocks and commodities this week, commenting that a truce could be on the way which would remove tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing was able to offer concessions on IP, tariffs and other issues. Equity markets are probably the best barometer now for trade deal forecasting and it’s notable that S&Ps have held on to their recent gains. Equity market pricing suggests to us that China and the US are still on course to reach some sort of truce in 2019. We also continue…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News