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The Biggest Losers Of The Trade War

Friday, May 17, 2019

1. Nearing peak coal

- The number of final investment decisions (FIDs) for new coal plants has plunged over the last three years, falling from 88 GW in 2015 to just 22 GW in 2018, according to the IEA.

- As the Bloomberg chart shows, FIDs actually fell below the volume of coal that was shut down. About 30 GW of coal capacity was taken offline last year, the first time retirements exceeded new investment.

- With projects still coming online, coal generation is ticking up, but only slightly. As the queue gets worked through, peak coal demand will soon arrive.

- “This is a sneak preview of where we’ll be in three to four years’ time,” Tim Buckley, director of energy finance studies at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told Bloomberg. “If closures stay where they are, we’re at peak by 2021.”

2. Soybean prices hit 10-year low

- Soybean prices fell to a 10-year low following the increase of tariffs from both the U.S. and China, dipping to $7.55 per bushel this week.

- Prices initially plunged last year after China implemented the first round of tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, which came in response to American tariffs on Chinese goods.

- Margins on soybeans – the difference between the value of raw soybeans and the value of soybean meal and soybean oil – were near record highs last year, according to the EIA.…

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