This week in oil markets has been all about the pervasive trade war between China and the US that has dogged oil prices for the better part of the year, resulting in demand growth forecasts from multiple sources and analysts repeatedly being adjusted downward. There was some rare bullish news coming out of trade war discussions this week, with claims that both sides had agreed to relax tariffs and would sign something soon to that effect. But late in the week sentiment seemed to shift, with some traders skeptical that any deal will be signed in the short term. This same story has been playing out for months on end, and no trading lesson is ever learned.
All eyes this weekend will be on news related to the Aramco IPO listing on the Tadawul, with Saturday hopefully bringing the prospectus for the IPO and a final resolution for the question on everyone’s mind: What will the final valuation for Aramco be?
Brazil’s Oil Auction Flop
Brazil had a tough week. The two auctions planned for this week, the Transfer of Rights (TOR) auction on Wednesday and the pre-salt auction on Thursday, were huge disappointments. The result? Several of the world’s most mouthwatering oil prospects have been taken off the market - a development that will send shockwaves through the global oil industry.
Wednesday’s TOR auction was supposed to bring in $50 billion—$25 billion for Brazil, and $25ish billion to Brazil’s state-run…