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Supply Risks Loom, Creating Potential for Higher Oil Prices

Friday, June 24, 2016

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.

1. Iran’s rapid progress

- Iran has made shocking progress in boosting oil production. Since January, when international sanctions were removed, Iran has managed to increase production by 730,000 barrels per day.
- Iranian oil production hit 3.64 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May, about 80,000 barrels per day higher than in the month of April.
- Much of Iran’s increased output has gone to Europe, where Iran is fighting to retake lost market share.
- The extra supplies have prevented a sharper rally in international oil prices. But Iran’s near-term progress could be reaching its limits. Without investment in new oil fields, production could stagnate.
- The IEA projects Iran will average 3.6 mb/d for 2016 – roughly where output currently stands – and only rise to 3.7 mb/d in 2017.
- Iran has a goal of attracting $100 billion in new investment, but uncertainty over oil contracts along with lingering sanctions from the U.S. government could scare away western oil companies, at least for a while. Iran may not be able to significantly boost production from today’s levels for a few more years.

2.…

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