Resource nationalism surges full speed ahead and metamorphoses along the way; global subsidies come back to bite governments where it hurts; mergers and acquisitions redefine the industry; the hunger for new exploration frontiers sees no boundaries; the (gas) future becomes increasingly liquefied—and seaborne; the natural gas boom set the petrochemical industry up for high times; the US ‘pivot’ to Asia creates resources war theaters out of Africa and Asia, but a new era of US-Chinese energy cooperation is ushered in simultaneously.
A New Wave of Resource Nationalism
While investors should continue to be concerned about the renationalization of energy resources in Latin America following a wave of resource nationalism initiatives in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela, we expect more interest in the coming years pursuing new oil and gas opportunities in Brazil, Colombia and Peru—three venues that have independent licensing agencies.
The knee-jerk response of governments when the oil and gas discoveries start coming in is to suddenly change the rules of the game by re-engineering natural resource legislation in order to grab a larger chunk of the profits, and by so doing scaring investors away. This is expected to happen to some extent—gradually over the next two years—in places where major discoveries promise great potential, like Kenya, Uganda and Mozambique, for starters.
While we do not expect outright…