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Russia Likely To Escalate As Losses Pile Up


In another possible defeat, Russia’s some 20,000 forces allegedly have been ordered to withdraw from Kherson this week to the other side of the Dnipro River. Despite large numbers of Russian forces, constant attacks from Ukrainian forces are wreaking havoc on Moscow’s undersupplied military. Kherson is important symbolically as well because it was the first - and only - regional capital Russia managed to occupy and hold in its invasion. The withdrawal was announced by the Russian Defense Ministry, citing the inability to keep the region supplied and secure amid a concerted Ukrainian push to cut off supply lines.

The withdrawal announcement, which came from the Russian Defense Ministry, has not been confirmed by the Ukrainians, who said on Wednesday that they had not yet seen an indication of withdrawal and that fighting continued. The Kremlin confirmed on Thursday that it had begun withdrawal.

We are inclined to err on the side of caution here. Russian forces may withdraw; however, the likelihood is that they are preparing for another, bigger attack on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, which hasn’t seen any major attacks since October 31st. Ukraine is viewing the alleged withdrawal from Kherson as a distraction from the stockpiling of weapons for an aerial bombardment of infrastructure. There is also concern that due to the significance of Kherson (which Russia has attempted to annex), a withdrawal could indicate a drastic measure along the lines of a scorched-earth…

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  • PM Dunne on November 12 2022 said:
    Russia simply decided that if Ukraine flooded the Dnieper River basin by destroying the dam that they couldn't support the 40 BBG's they had on the line.
    So they withdrew and took a defensible line on the river.
    They can now redeploy over half of these forces east for the coming offensive.
    It is a decision that obviously places more emphasis on the offensive than the territory.
    4 or 5 months from now the battle lines will be very different.

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