If you live in America, or anywhere else and have been paying attention for that matter, I am sure you are aware that there will be a Presidential election here in 2020. Given that the Democrats have yet to pick a candidate from a crowded field and especially given what happened four years ago, I have no idea at this point who will win. Investors, however, don’t need to know who the next President of the U.S.A. will be to set a strategy for next year based on politics. That can be done on the basis of what kind of campaign will be run.
I’ll go out on a limb here and say that whoever wins the Democratic nomination, they are not going to be pro big oil. The rise of Donald Trump has seen the destruction of the middle ground in American politics, and climate policy is an area where talk is cheap and grand plans will no doubt be commonplace. Energy policy, however, is also an area where rapid change is almost impossible.
Apart from the practical and infrastructure challenges of attempting to shift away from fossil fuels, there are the security and economic issues, so when all is said and done, big oil will almost certainly be fine. Again though, the actual outcome doesn’t matter right now to investors. To the extent that politics is an influence, the markets will be moved in the first three quarters of next year by what is said, and on that basis, solar stocks could be massive beneficiaries.
Every Democratic contender’s policy platform…