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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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Oil Stocks To Watch As Geopolitical Risk Mounts

Kurdish Military

This week in oil news continue to deliver nothing but ‘green lights’ for investors, and keeps me convinced as I have been for several weeks now that every dip in oil prices – and oil stock prices – is an opportunity to position oneself aggressively for the medium term.

One story that added to my bullish attitude has been ongoing skirmishing in Kurdistan. Kurdish Independence has been an ongoing struggle, and the recent ISIS losses have given the Peshmerga renewed room to push back on the centralized Iraqi government and Turkish forces looking to retain control of Kurdish land – and Kurdish oil. The U.S. is supposedly supportive of Baghdad, but also historically very supportive of the Kurds. This makes the U.S. position touchy indeed. Kurdish oil output totals about 1.2m barrels a day and a recent small shutdown is about to be restored. I don’t expect any large-scale removal of Kurdish oil from the global marketplace, unless full scale civil war erupts, but continuing destabilization is going to add bullish sentiment to the current market in any case.

Meanwhile, Saudi oil minister Al-Falih again confirmed the Saudi Aramco IPO on track for 2018, after several rumors that the Saudis might call the whole thing off, or alternately look to privately place the entire 5% of the proposed sale in Chinese hands. While a public offering would bring a much higher price as well as allow continued easy issuance of shares to raise capital…

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