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Oil May Not Go Higher Unless Supply Gets Disrupted

Weekly Performance Summary

This week witnessed varied movements in the crude oil market, driven by multiple factors. Oil prices dropped lower on Thursday, impacted by significant increases in gasoline and distillate stocks, which overshadowed a larger-than-expected crude stock decline.

However, overall, the market is slightly higher for the week as we head into Friday’s action, supported by supply issues in Libya, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and encouraging remarks from the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes.

Additionally, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report could have a significant influence on the near-term direction of the market if it substantially alters the market’s expectations of a Fed rate cut in March.

Supply Factors

Middle East Tensions and Libya

Current events in the Middle East and Libya are crucial for the oil market. The halt in operations at Libya's Sharara oilfield, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, due to local protests, alongside heightened tensions involving Iran and Yemen, presents serious supply concerns. These issues, particularly the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, could lead to supply shortages, pushing prices upward.

OPEC+ Influence

OPEC and its allies' ongoing collaboration, despite recent changes like Angola's departure, signals a controlled approach to oil supply management. The decisions made in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on February 1st will be critical…

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