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Oil Markets Hit Hard By Trump’s New Trade War Offensive

Friday August 2, 2019

1. Shale hit, offshore growing

- Employment is shrinking in the U.S. shale sector, but growing offshore.

- “This is a clear effect of the increase in offshore sanctioning. We expect offshore commitments to nearly double from 2018 to 2020, and sustain high levels of spending over the next five years,” says Matthew Fitzsimmons, vice president on Rystad Energy’s oilfield services team.

- Demand for offshore oil services will reach $442 billion by 2025, according to Rystad Energy, up 45 percent from 2018.

- Meanwhile, onshore North America is starting to see cuts. Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) recently cut 8 percent of its workforce. Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) slashed a third of its workforce this week and saw its stock price fall more than 35 percent on Thursday – although the loss was exacerbated by the U.S. decision to hike tariffs on China.

2. Trade war hits US soybean exports

- The U.S. agricultural sector has been hit hard by the trade war, which is now set to escalate by another round on September 1.

- Soybean exports from the U.S. have plunged since the trade war began in 2018, with Brazil taking market share. According to Standard Chartered, Brazil accounted for 80 percent of China’s soybean imports over the past 12 months.

- With market access cut off, American farmers put soybeans in storage, and inventories rose to a record high of 28.6 million tons…



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