• 5 minutes Trump will capitulate on the trade war
  • 7 minutes China 2019 - Orwell was 35 years out
  • 12 minutes Glory to Hong Kong
  • 15 minutes ABC of Brexit, economy wise, where to find sites, links to articles ?
  • 3 hours Peaceful demonstration in Hong Kong again thwarted by brutality of police
  • 2 hours Here's your favourite girl, Tom!
  • 3 hours Civil Unrest Is Erupting All Over The World, But Just Wait Until America Joins The Party...
  • 4 hours Australian Hydroelectric Plant Cost Overruns
  • 42 mins Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 57 mins China's Blueprint For Global Power
  • 1 hour Nigeria Demands $62B from Oil Majors
  • 17 hours Brexit agreement
  • 1 hour IMO 2020:
  • 4 hours Ford Planning Huge North American Charging Network
  • 20 hours The Problem Is The Economy, Not The Climate
  • 18 hours 5 Tweets That Change The World?
  • 17 hours Bloomberg: shale slowing. Third wave of shale coming.
Alt Text

Are Sci-Fi Energy Sources Even Possible?

There are some wild and…

Alt Text

Iraq Gets Yet Another Sanctions Waiver

Iraq has been given another…

Alt Text

The Lithium Even Elon Couldn’t Buy

The U.S. may soon be…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Oil Market Uncertain As Geopolitical Fears Fade

The oil price rally was halted early on Tuesday as concern over the Syria conflict escalating somewhat eased and U.S. shale production continued to grow.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, WTI Crude was up 0.06 percent at $66.26, while Brent Crude was up 0.31 percent at $71.64.

On the one hand, the geopolitical risk premium is definitely back in oil markets this year, and according to market participants and analysts, it will not be going away anytime soon.

Fears that the Syrian conflict could spread across the Middle East, the possibility of renewed sanctions on Iran, and Venezuela’s oil production in freefall have been supporting oil prices lately. The ever-tightening oil market has accentuated these concerns, increasing oil price volatility.

On the other hand, the U.S. EIA said in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report on Monday that U.S. shale production is expected to increase by 125,000 bpd in May over April, with the Permian production surging by 73,000 bpd, Eagle Ford’s by 24,000 bpd, and the Bakken’s by 15,000 bpd.

While geopolitical issues have dominated the oil market in the past week, traders will also be looking at the API stockpiles data later on Tuesday, and the EIA’s inventory report on Wednesday.

The geopolitical concern over conflicts in the Middle East will not be going away in the short term, Michael Cohen, head of energy commodities research at Barclays, says. Syria, Yemen, and Iraq - with parliamentary elections next month - are the hot spots that could boost oil prices should conflicts escalate. Then there are the Iran-U.S. and Venezuela issues that could also add to the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets. Related: New Sanctions On Russia Could Lift Oil Prices Further

“All of this is going to add to headline risk at the very same time that we’re gearing up for the driving season,” Cohen told CNBC, noting that Barclays sees plenty of upside pressure for oil prices in Q2.

However, later in the year, oil prices may face a correction as U.S. production continues to surge. The market has already priced in the potential of renewed sanctions on Iran as well as a further Venezuela production drop. According to Barclays, the oil market will tip into surplus in the last few months of 2018 and remain oversupplied through 2019.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment
  • Kr55 on April 17 2018 said:
    demand goes up like a step ladder into Q2 and Q3. People are expecting 1.5-2M of demand growth in that step. GOod luck to shale filling the gap. ALmost zero build in Q1 in USA during low demand season. Should be an interesting spring/summer.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play