• 3 minutes Will Iron-Air batteries REALLY change things?
  • 7 minutes Natural gas mobility for heavy duty trucks
  • 11 minutes NordStream2
  • 1 hour GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 4 hours Evergrande is going Belly Up.
  • 7 hours World’s Biggest Battery In California Overheats, Shuts Down
  • 1 min U.S. Presidential Elections Status - Electoral Votes
  • 18 hours Monday 9/13 - "High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year" by Irina Slav
  • 22 hours Poland Expands LNG Powered Trucking and Fueling Stations
  • 2 days And now, hybrid electric locomotives...
  • 1 day Ozone layer destruction driving global warming
  • 2 days The unexpected loss of output from wind turbines compels UK to turn to an alternative; It's not what you think!
  • 2 days The Painful Death of Coal
  • 1 day The coming Cyber Attack
  • 1 day Is the Republican Party going to perpetuate lies about the 2020 election and attempt to whitewash what happened on January 6th?
  • 1 day 'Get A Loan,' Commerce Chief Tells Unpaid Federal Workers
Martin Tillier

Martin Tillier

More Info

Maintaining A Long Bias On Oil

The timing of these pieces, coming at the end of the week, is sometimes a frustration, but often a blessing. There are times when I want to give you a “hot take” on something in the news. After all, as somebody who made a living in a dealing room for a couple of decades, reacting is kind of what I do. However, my inability to react immediately to this week’s big news, Trump’s decision on the Iran deal, was probably a good thing.

On the surface, the market implications of the decision were obvious. Even those who believe that the original deal was a bad one would struggle to argue that unilaterally withdrawing from it left the Middle East more stable than it was before, and instability in the region always pushes oil prices up. Because of the potential significance of the announcement in that regard, my own hot take was that oil was about to fly. WTI did indeed jump, but as you can see from the chart below, on the initial reaction, futures only made back the ground lost earlier in the morning, when a rumor surfaced that Trump would stay in the deal. I did manage to get long shortly after the announcement and made money on the trade, but it was a long way from the home run I envisaged.

(Click to enlarge)

After that muted initial reaction we have continued a little higher, but still not nearly as much as many people expected. What I and many others forgot in our enthusiastic bullishness when the news came on Tuesday was something…




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News