• 3 minutes 2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019
  • 6 minutes "Leaked" request by some Democrats that they were asking Nancy to coordinate censure instead of impeachment.
  • 11 minutes Trump's China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts
  • 14 minutes Democrats through impeachment process helped Trump go out of China deal conundrum. Now Trump can safely postpone deal till after November 2020 elections
  • 34 mins Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 6 hours USA v China. Which is 'best'?
  • 26 mins Everything you think you know about economics is WRONG!
  • 6 hours Wallstreet's "acid test" for Democrat Presidential candidate to receive their financial support . . . Support "Carried Interest"
  • 2 hours My interview on PDVSA Petrocaribe and corruption
  • 15 hours Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 7 hours Quotes from the Widowmaker
  • 1 day True Confessions of a Billionaire
  • 6 hours Global Debt Worries. How Will This End?
  • 13 hours Petroleum Industry Domain Names

Maintaining A Long Bias On Oil

Oil Rig

The timing of these pieces, coming at the end of the week, is sometimes a frustration, but often a blessing. There are times when I want to give you a “hot take” on something in the news. After all, as somebody who made a living in a dealing room for a couple of decades, reacting is kind of what I do. However, my inability to react immediately to this week’s big news, Trump’s decision on the Iran deal, was probably a good thing.

On the surface, the market implications of the decision were obvious. Even those who believe that the original deal was a bad one would struggle to argue that unilaterally withdrawing from it left the Middle East more stable than it was before, and instability in the region always pushes oil prices up. Because of the potential significance of the announcement in that regard, my own hot take was that oil was about to fly. WTI did indeed jump, but as you can see from the chart below, on the initial reaction, futures only made back the ground lost earlier in the morning, when a rumor surfaced that Trump would stay in the deal. I did manage to get long shortly after the announcement and made money on the trade, but it was a long way from the home run I envisaged.

(Click to enlarge)

After that muted initial reaction we have continued a little higher, but still not nearly as much as many people expected. What I and many others forgot in our enthusiastic bullishness when the news came on Tuesday was something…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News