1 dayIran To Help Venezuela Overhaul Major Refinery Complex
2 daysEU Supports $100 Russian Diesel Price Cap
2 daysOil Prices Crash After Perky Jobs Data
2 daysEU Leaders Meet In Ukraine To Discuss Fresh Sanctions Package
2 daysRussia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Slump 46% Year-Over-Year
2 daysEurope’s Gas Prices Set For 6% Weekly Gain As Cold Weather Closes In
2 daysGermany Failed To Hit Its Gas Consumption Target In January
2 daysRussia Sees No Reason To Cut Its Oil Product Output
2 daysRussia Considers Brent-Based Oil Tax To Limit Its Losses
2 daysU.S. Refiners To Scale Back Capacity Utilization After Record 2022
2 daysTesla May Have To Reconsider Its Mexico Plant
2 daysFitch Expects $95 Oil In 2023
2 daysColorado Regulator Suspends Oil Company’s Ability To Operate Wells
2 daysNorway Says It Will Use Wartime Oil Profits To Aid Ukraine
2 daysSpain Boosts LNG Port Capabilities But Russian Gas Is In The Mix
3 daysEU President Promises 10th Round Of Sanctions On Russia
3 daysMorgan Stanley: Expect More EV Price Cuts Ahead
3 daysAsia’s Oil Imports Hit Record High Despite Drop In Chinese Demand
3 daysOPEC’s Oil Production Drops In January As Saudi Arabia Cuts Output
3 daysTurkey: Oil Product Tankers Must Have Insurance From February 6
3 daysEU Launches LNG Reference Price For Its Gas Market Correction Mechanism
3 daysShell Reports Record Earnings As Profits Double
3 daysU.S. LNG Exports Drop As Domestic Demand Climbs
3 daysActivists Attempt To Derail An $8 Billion Alaskan Oil Project
3 daysU.S. Pipeline Operator Predicts A Big Year For The Permian Basin
3 daysOil Prices Climb On OPEC+ Decision And Declining Dollar
3 daysU.S. Monthly Crude Oil Production Falls
3 days4 Days from Deadline, EU Fails To Agree On Russian Oil Products Price Cap
3 daysGold Demand Soars To Hit 11-Year High In 2022
3 daysGermany’s Largest Gas Storage Facility Can’t Store Gas
3 daysU.S. Manufacturing PMI Hits Lowest Since May 2020
4 daysIran And Russia Integrate Banking Systems To Skirt SWIFT Sanctions
4 daysUK Food Inflation Is Out Of Control
4 daysOil Pipeline From Russia To Europe Remains Operational Despite Shelling
4 daysRussia’s Economy Shrinks 2.7% Due To Western Sanctions
4 daysRussian Urals Traded At $49.48 in January, But The Kremlin Isn’t Worried
4 daysGoldman: The Fed Is Approaching A “Critical Inflection Point”
4 daysDisappointing Returns May Force BP To Rein In Its Renewable Energy Push
4 daysBiden Set To Support A Scaled-Down Oil Project In Alaska
4 daysWhite House Slams Exxon’s Record Profit As ‘Outrageous’
4 minutesEnergy Armageddon
6 minutesHow Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
10 minutesRussia Says Europe Will Struggle To Replace Its Oil Products
9 hoursGREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
7 hoursReality catching up with EV forecasts
10 days"Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas
4 days87,000 new IRS agents, higher taxes, and a massive green energy slush fund... "Here Are The Winners And Losers In The 'Inflation Reduction Act'"-ZeroHedge
9 daysA Somewhat Realistic View of the Near Future for Electric Vehicles Worldwide
US stocks reached all-time highs this week as optimism grew that Trump and Xi have a trade deal on the way and the US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates later this week.
On the trade front, President Trump reaffirmed that "Phase 1" of the deal is largely complete after China's leadership said the first part of the agreement was "basically done" over the weekend. The first part of the deal is reported to include Chinese concessions on intellectual property, agreements to buy more US agricultural products and additional freedoms for US financial firms to operate in China. In return, the US is canceling a scheduled round of tariffs aimed at $250 billion in Chinese goods. President Trump has stated that he would like to sign Phase 1 with Xi at APEC next month in Chile.
Meanwhile, in bond markets US Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver his third consecutive rate decrease this week to juice an economic recovery that is showing signs of strain from old age. US government yields rallied due to the optimism on the trade front, but futures markets still see two rate decreases from the Fed between now and June of 2020. Equity markets applauded the news by lifting US shares to a record high with the S&P 500 trading 3,040- up about 6% in the last six months. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite rallied to 2,980 for a nearly 8% rally in just the last two months.
Unfortunately, commodity markets seem to be taking a more moderate view of the economic outlook,…
US stocks reached all-time highs this week as optimism grew that Trump and Xi have a trade deal on the way and the US Federal Reserve would lower interest rates later this week.
On the trade front, President Trump reaffirmed that "Phase 1" of the deal is largely complete after China's leadership said the first part of the agreement was "basically done" over the weekend. The first part of the deal is reported to include Chinese concessions on intellectual property, agreements to buy more US agricultural products and additional freedoms for US financial firms to operate in China. In return, the US is canceling a scheduled round of tariffs aimed at $250 billion in Chinese goods. President Trump has stated that he would like to sign Phase 1 with Xi at APEC next month in Chile.
Meanwhile, in bond markets US Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver his third consecutive rate decrease this week to juice an economic recovery that is showing signs of strain from old age. US government yields rallied due to the optimism on the trade front, but futures markets still see two rate decreases from the Fed between now and June of 2020. Equity markets applauded the news by lifting US shares to a record high with the S&P 500 trading 3,040- up about 6% in the last six months. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite rallied to 2,980 for a nearly 8% rally in just the last two months.
Unfortunately, commodity markets seem to be taking a more moderate view of the economic outlook, cautioning it might not be time for bulls to break out the champagne. In fact, relative to stocks, commodity returns have been wretched with copper, oil and US gasoline prices down 10%, 18% and 19%, respectively, over the last six months.
So why the disconnect? How can risk assets which are both dependent on economic strength offer such disparate views on the economic outlook?
We've written here before that it will be tough for oil to rally substantially until you remove the macro ceiling of the US/China trade war. However, this doesn't create a guarantee that commodities will rally if a deal gets signed. Stock markets are clearly pricing in increased odds of a deal. Perhaps commodity markets are also pricing a deal in and simply saying that even a large bilateral trade agreement won't be enough to lift global demand out of its slump. There is a very real risk that a trade deal could result in a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ type of reaction.
And why are oil market operators glummer than their stock brethren? Buried in the background of market headlines the EIA, OPEC and IEA continue to forecast sizeable crude inventories builds (with supply outpacing demand) through the first half of 2020 despite the recent declines in US production. We think it’s likely the oversupply trend- while less flashy than any headline including the word ‘Trump’- is dampening any market enthusiasm and traders are simply waiting on better supply/demand data before sending the market higher. While stock markets appear content to feast on central bank easing and trade deal hope, oil traders appear to be waiting for something more; good fundamentals.
To access this exclusive content...
Select your membership level below
COMMUNITY MEMBERSHIP
(FREE)
Full access to the largest energy community on the web