• 2 minutes Rational analysis of CV19 from Harvard Medical School
  • 4 minutes While U.S. Pipelines Are Under Siege, China Streamlines Its Oil and Gas Network
  • 7 minutes Renewables Overtake Coal, But Lag Far Behind Oil And Natural Gas
  • 20 mins Joe Biden the "Archie Bunker" of the left selects Kamala Harris for VP . . . . . . Does she help the campaign ?
  • 23 hours China wields coronavirus to nationalize American-owned carmaker
  • 1 hour Trump Hands Putin Major Geopolitical Victory
  • 1 day Open letter from Politico about US-russian relations
  • 17 hours COVID&life and Vicious Circle: "Working From Home Is Not Panacea For Virus"
  • 1 hour Those Nasty White People and Camping Racism
  • 6 hours Brent above $45. Holding breath for $50??
  • 2 days US will pay for companies to bring supply chains home from China: Kudlow - COVID-19 has highlighted the problem of relying too heavily on one country for production
  • 16 hours Oil Tanker Runs Aground in Mauritius - Oil Spill
  • 2 hours The Truth about Chinese and Indian Engineering
  • 4 days Trumpist lies about coronavirus too bad for Facebook - BANNED!
  • 2 days Trump is turning USA into a 3rd world dictatorship
  • 3 days Liquid Air Battery
  • 3 days What the heroin industry can teach us about solar power (BBC)

How Tight Are Physical Oil Markets? Time Spreads Offer Hints

Macroeconomic concerns pushed oil lower this week as the recent rise in interest rates spilled bearishly into the stock market and ultimately pushed risk assets lower across the board. In the U.S., the spike in the 10yr yield to 3.25% (7-year high) instigated a drop in S&Ps of 232 points from its all-time high on October 3rd through its weekly low on October 11th representing an 8% decline. While macro pressure could persist as a bearish factor for oil in the near term, we’re thinking the more powerful influence on oil prices in the short term will be the ability (or inability) of Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. to replace lost Iranian barrels as sanctions are scheduled to take hold on November 4th in an already undersupplied market.

In gauging the status of the supply/demand balance there are certainly market participants among us who think that oil’s risks are very much skewed to the upside. IEA chief Fatih Birol made his concerns clear at a conference this week pleading with OPEC and non-OPEC producing nations to do what they can to increase supplies as the oil markets “are entering the Red Zone.” Mr. Birol is concerned that more bullish momentum in oil prices will eat into global economic growth. Hedge funds have also increased bullish bets on oil in recent weeks with net length in ICE Brent contracts jumping 50% from August 21st to October 2nd.

On the other side there are more temperate forecasts available including- very notably-…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News