How Russia Has Revived NATO

These are great times for NATO, as an organization and an alliance. After the fall of Communism in the 1990s, NATO lost its raison d’etre. It never fully revived as a military alliance - until now. This is exactly why Putin is suddenly downplaying a NATO expansion, while simultaneously threatening Finland and Sweden, even if vaguely. The new message is that Russia does not fear a NATO expansion, despite the fact that from the beginning, the war on Ukraine was about precisely that - along with securing more authoritarian power for Putin at home through the use of a big external ‘threat’. More specifically, Putin’s message is this: NATO (not unlike the EU) is not such a unified force. 

Nor will Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession go smoothly. Turkey has already demanded concession from the two countries, threatening to veto the move if they don't comply. Turkey doesn’t outright oppose Finland and Sweden joining the military alliance; rather, Ankara is trying to use this to get some concessions - the big one being their support of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and affiliated groups, with whom Turkey is at war. 

The relatively unhinged Croatian president, Zoran Milanovic, is also opposed to Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership bid - but again, it’s not opposition as much as it is an attempt to gain concessions in Bosnia. For Croatia’s “vote”, Milanovic wants electoral reform in Bosnia that would favor Bosnian Croats. It’s another stirring up of ethno-nationalist sentiment at the worst time. But Milanovic does not have the support of the Croatian government in his fishing expedition to the point that the prime minister may end up calling for the president’s dismissal. 

Likewise, divisions are showing in France, where June legislative elections could see a win for a radical left leader (Jean-Luc Melenchon). If a radical left leader were to become prime minister, there could be a new vote on the country’s NATO membership. 

This is exactly what Putin is banking on and the likely reasoning behind is sudden nonchalance over NATO expansion. 

South Ossetia is quite another issue. The breakaway Georgian republic just announced it would be holding a referendum on joining Russia, without apparently consulting Moscow first. While on the surface, this would appear to be a victory for Putin, as it would likely mean that Georgia could not join NATO, the Kremlin seems to find the timing ill-suited. Knee-deep in a war in Ukraine with mounting losses, the chaos that would ensue with “annexing” South Ossetia would be unbearable. That referendum is set to be held on July 17th, unless the Kremlin steps in and quashes it beforehand.