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Global Energy Advisory May 27th 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Niger Delta: This is only the beginning
• Libya: Division of oil spoils hasn’t been decided yet …
• South Sudan: Oil production will resume in July

In the Niger Delta, where supermajor oil installations are under all-out attack, production has fallen to 1.4 million barrels per day as of mid-May. It was supposed to be around 2.2 million barrels per day. This is the lowest level of production Nigeria has seen in 27 years. Chevron, Italian Eni and Shell have all been forced to take production offline and evacuate non-essential staff due to a series of attack launched by a newly formed group, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA). But in this dynamic setting, we will probably see a secondary conflict among rival militant groups as NDA attempts to stake its claim here. These rivalries generally lead to even more attacks as one group attempts to claim the top position and outdo the other. The most vulnerable here are the onshore facilities and those operating in shallow waters. Shell and Exxon both have considerable onshore and shallow water facilities and infrastructure in the Niger Delta.

In Libya, General Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA) of the east are said to be only 10 kilometers outside of the capital, Tripoli, and are warning that they will infiltrate. This is far from over. Libya needs Haftar to fight back ISIS and Ansar al-Sharia; Haftar isn’t pleased that the Government…

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