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Global Energy Advisory May 12th 2017

Oil Rig

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Tensions between Libya’s Presidential Council (PC) and the National Oil Corporation (NOC) are growing. The PC, which presently functions (that could change any day) as the head of state and military, and which is responsible for selecting members of the government, is ostensibly in control of investment decisions concerning Libyan oil. It was given this power via a resolution passed earlier this year. But the cracks in this set-up are already showing. The NOC is now accusing the PC of using the resolution to give German Wintershall a free pass in terms of compliance terms that it had agreed to with the NOC back in 2010. The NOC is now saying that the PC’s liberal stance on Wintershall is costing Libya $250 million because the dispute between the NOC and Wintershall has led to the shutdown of 160,000 bpd in production capacity. So, what does this mean for Libya? For the moment, production continues to rise. It’s now jumped to 780,000 bpd for the first time since 2014. And while elsewhere such a dispute might not rock any serious boats, in Libya this is the stuff of bloody changes in power. The NOC and PC are only hanging on to a modicum of control in the face of numerous militia factions that shift alliances with the wind. If the PC refuses to meet the NOC’s demand to revoke the resolution that gave it control over investment decisions, we could very easily see another shift in power in Libya. The NOC…

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