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Global Energy Advisory - 5th December 2014

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Any and every oil and gas investor operating in Europe and Eurasia should be concerned about the very dangerous and very misguided Cold War geopolitics currently being bred. The US/NATO strategy against Russia threatens to destroy Europe entirely, and the next US president will likely take this to the point of no return, after the stage has been set by the current. The only way out of this predicament is to redraw borders in Eastern Europe—arbitrary borders that were put in place by the Soviets and, as we have seen in Ukraine, are not tenable. NATO’s misguided mission to start a Cold War threatens World War III, and NATO will not be on the winning side, eager as the organization is to regain some glory. This is the Number One medium-term threat to oil and gas investments in the region, and we recommend that investors start some serious strategic planning—now.

Ukraine should be considered no-go territory for investors. They are about to nominate a new Energy Minister, and this will be someone fully controlled by the oligarchs (sorry, business elite) with no mind for bringing in foreign investment and increasing Ukraine’s energy independence. Independent energy players in Ukraine will withdraw. They have had enough and the appointment of a new Energy Minister will only justify this sentiment further. The IMF is largely going to control the shots in most areas, but not in energy—even if they think…

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