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Global Energy Advisory 28th February 2014

Somalia, not so fast

Investors contemplating a potential move on Somalia are wise to consider that while this is the first time since a 20-year civil war and state collapse that the playing field is open and opportunities abound, the situation has far from stabilized. The Somali coast shares geological history with some of most promising East African emerging oil and gas venues: most notably Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, but there are territorial disputes that complicate matters beyond the ongoing security threat. Here are some recent developments, and a brief look at what every potential investor needs to know:
•    Al-Shabaab militants who were decimated last year but not destroyed have been resurfacing gradually. Last week, al-Shabaab militants attacked the presidential palace in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in a highly coordinated incident that left 14 people dead. Disguised as presidential guards, the militants gained access to the grounds and triggered a car bomb at the main gate, they then stormed the highly fortified compound.

•    On Thursday, 27 February, al-Shabaab launched another attack—this time a car bombing targeting security forces at a café near the intelligence headquarters in Mogadishu. At least seven people were killed.

•    Prior to these two attacks, al-Shabaab fired mortar rounds into the AMISOM (African Union force) airport complex, which houses some…

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