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Global Energy Advisory - 28th April, 2017

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Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• If you think what is happening right now in Macedonia is not important from a geopolitical perspective—think again. It might not be as sexy as Syria for media headlines, but it is arguably even more significant. This is Europe. The Balkans is like a massive haystack dried out by the sun with a bunch of little boys circling it with matches. Yes, there have been tinderbox incidents that analysts have cried wolf over many times in the post, since the end of the Yugoslav war in the 90s, but this time it is very real. Riots erupted yesterday in Macedonia parliament, and things got bloody. Some 80 people were injured when demonstrators stormed the legislature and attacked lawmakers in protest of the election of a new speaker of parliament at a time when deadlock has been keeping the country from forming a new government for months. This is not an isolated incident that will concern only Macedonia. Greece is on full alert, and its troops are ready. Intelligence sources say that Bulgaria has already deployed thousands of troops across the border, preparing for the worst-case scenario here. If this is a blood bath, it won’t be confined to Macedonia. There is already talk of a ‘greater Albania’, and Bosnia, which has been loosely surviving in a fragile post-conflict status quo, would be sucked into another war faster that it was the first. What happens in Macedonia will divide and conquer Europe.


•…

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