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Global Energy Advisory – 26th December 2014

Oil & Gas Venues 2015: The Good, Bad & Very Ugly

As 2014 draws to a close and North American oil and gas producers are in trouble over falling oil prices, we take you to some foreign venues to diversify your portfolio—sorting the good from the bad (and the ugly) for 2015.

The Good

• Hands down, Kenya is our number one frontier venue for 2015. Since the massive 2012 discovery that put Kenya on the global oil and gas map, the discoveries have continued and even while E&P companies are cutting costs elsewhere, not so in Kenya, which is set to become the key East African energy hub, with commercial production slated to launch in 2016, and much, much more to explore in its very promising basins. This is a long-term strategic play and there is still time to get in on it. Beyond this, political stability is fairly strong. Compared to many of its neighbors, Kenya is stable, secure and its government is cooperative.

• Kurdistan (the Kurdistan Region of Iraq) remains one of our top venues for 2015, even more so now that the dispute with the Iraqi central authorities in Baghdad has been more or less resolved. We’re not talking about a venue the size of Kenya here, but we are talking about easy access to markets, very successful exploration and internal political stability. There are potential security concerns due to the Islamic State’s (IS) offensive in Iraq and Syria and the potential for this to spill over into territory controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). IS controls a large swathe of territory in Northern Iraq, bordering the KRG, but the militant group does not at present have the power to overtake Kurdistan.

• Angola is another long-term strategic oil play that promises to overtake Nigeria eventually. Angola is the second-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, becoming an OPEC member in 2007. The country is targeting 2 million barrels/day of oil production in 2015, and is on track to make that happen, while exploration in pre-salt formations is gaining momentum and some massive oil projects are planned over the next couple of years. In February 2015, Angola will export around 1.86 million barrels of oil per day, which represents the highest export volume since January 2010. OPEC member Angola, however, is at risk over tumbling oil prices and there are concerns about ongoing investment in some key projects.

• The United Kingdom, some strongly believe, is…




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