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Global Energy Advisory 25th March 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• No need to worry about any big future push to get all of Libya’s oil back on pre-Gaddafi footing to worsen the supply glut. There is that, at least. Libya now has a third government, tacked on by a hasty decision by the UN. This new UN-backed “unity government” is now adding to the chaos that has hijacked already elusive Libyan stability since the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in 2011. This is a power-sharing deal gone bad. There were two rival governments: one internationally recognized government with a parliament that couldn’t even set foot in the capital, Tripoli, and has been relegated to the country’s east; and one Islamist-backed government controlling Tripoli and using a myriad of militias to prop itself up. Under the new UN plan, these two parallel governments were to hand power over to a new Government of National Accord (GNA) under prime minister designate Fayez al-Sarraj. It’s not going to happen. The UN envoy can’t even get into Tripoli to talk about it, and neither side has even endorsed the new GNA formally. The GNA can try to move into Tripoli, but it’s not going to get very far. It won’t have control over Libya’s money or its army, as it stands. And it would also have to deal with the militias controlling Tripoli. If they make a move, the conflict will move to the next bloodier level. ISIS will reap the benefits of this greater chaos.

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