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Global Energy Advisory – 23rd October 2015

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• The situation in Kurdistan is worsening after the ruling party reportedly fired on protesters and violent clashes in two major cities have left five dead and 200 wounded. And while this type of violence may be par for the course in the rest of Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan is not prone to mass protests or violence on this level so much more can be read into this situation in terms of internal stability. The main violence happened on the 10th of October, and since then the ruing Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has closed all opposition media outlets and barred opposition Gorran parliamentarians from their offices—fanning the flames of the situation. The protests began in the city of Sulaimaniyah and then spread fairly quickly, turning violent in Kaladize. President Massoud Barzani’s KDP offices were set on fire. Clashes lasted for seven days, with sources on the ground saying that the bulk of the protesters were supporters of the Gorran Movement for Change, which saw four of its ministers removed from the Cabinet.

In the meantime, though not directly related to the recent violence, Genel Energy—a key producer here—has cut its revenue and output forecasts for this year, citing payment problems and low oil prices that have led to a reduction of spending on operations.

Genel has reduced its output forecast for this year and will not invest in increasing production until the Kurdistan Regional Government…

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