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Global Energy Advisory - 16th September 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Libyan oil has been liberated for all intents and purposes. Despite what Western forces would have one think, General Haftar of the Libyan National Army (LNA) took over the country’s key ports and other oil and strategic facilities without much of a fight. This was a massive, well-coordinated military operation that included the infiltration of and confiscation of tribal loyalty from the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), which had largely been holding Libyan oil exports hostage for over two years. Haftar and the LNA were linked to the eastern government in Tobruk/Benghazi, while the PFG was a militia force that had just recently struck a lucrative (and dubious) deal with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Haftar takes issue with the GNA because it encompasses radical Islamist forces that he’s been fighting for years. Let’s try some straight talk here because you’re not going to get it from the media. The West wanted the GNA because it could control it amid the eternal chaos of Libya; and this combination was good for oil deals. In one fell swoop, General Haftar has weakened the GNA beyond the point of any return. But he’s also handed over the oil ports to the legitimate National Oil Company (NOC) of Libya. That the NOC has recognized and accepted Haftar’s move to take over the ports means it will be very difficult to try to make any legitimate-seeming move to retake…

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