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EIA: No Drawdown In Oil Inventories Until Mid-2018

Friday January 27, 2016

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.


1. Oil inventories to rise through mid-2018

 

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- Global crude oil and product inventories increased at a rate of about 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2016 as upstream production continued to rise and seasonal factors weighed on demand.
- But for the whole of 2016, inventories grew at a more modest 0.9 mb/d average.
- OPEC cuts will help, but global production is still expected to increase this year, according to the EIA. Demand will grow faster, however, leading to the inventory build to shrink to just 0.3 mb/d for 2017.
- But that is still a surplus. The EIA doesn’t actually see inventories declining until the second half of 2018, a remarkably bearish projection that leaves crude oil prices below $60 per barrel for the next two years.

2. Gasoline stocks rising again

 

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- Even as OPEC has sparked a bull run and a bout of optimism over the past two months, signs of a glut persist.
- Gasoline inventories are rising at an unusually fast pace for this time of year, and the excess supplies are squeezing refining margins as storage levels…




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