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Don’t Believe The Oil Bulls

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Oil prices were flat over the last week with Brent trading near $59 while WTI was near $53. On the bearish side traders continue to lament the lack of progress on US/China talks and generally weak fundamentals. On the bullish side we had some news of distress from the US shale patch while OPEC confirmed plans to remove barrels from the market through 2020.

Away from the oil market US stocks were broadly higher on strong earnings and hope that a Brexit deal could actually be possible in the coming weeks. As for economic forecasts, the IMF believes global growth will fall to its lowest level since 2009 this year due to US/China tariffs. OPEC’s October monthly oil market report cut its 2019 global growth prediction from 3.1% to 3.0%.

Back to the bearish stuff, investors had a short-lived dance with optimism cheering a ‘Phase 1’ trade deal between the US and China last week which was dashed in favor of extended talks at the end of October. The two sides remain far apart on intellectual property, the US ‘blacklist’ of tech companies and several more issues. Negotiators now have to work against the next round of tariffs going into effect on December 15th. This was undesirable news in the same week where China’s factory gate prices fell at their fastest pace in more than three years while China’s import data for September revealed a fifth straight decline. As for fundamentals, Reuters poling has traders predicting a fifth straight…




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