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Does Extending The OPEC+ Deal Make Sense?

The price jump evidenced during the last weeks was blasted through the ceiling with the White House announcing it does not intend to renew waivers to buyers of Iranian crude. The news, labelled a big mistake by Iran’s foreign ministry, was met with shock and dismay in China and Turkey, with India claiming it might bring down Iranian imports to zero. The Trump Administration stated it counts on Saudi Arabia and UAE to offset any potential supply shortages, yet Saudi Aramco already indicated it does not intend to raise output in May 2019. By the middle of the working week, the situation has calmed somewhat due to the IEA’s assurances that the market is adequately supplied and that there will not be any massive supply deficit, yet refiners with a slate tilted towards heavy grades might beg to disagree.

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In view of the above global benchmark Brent traded at 73.8-74 USD per barrel, whilst WTI was hovering around 66-66.2 USD per barrel as of Wednesday afternoon.

1. Full US Iran Sanctions Would Make Prolongation of OPEC+ Deal Senseless

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- If carried through, the US’ announced intention not to extend any of the 8 waivers it handed out to buyers of Iranian oil last November would cut short the relevancy of the OPEC+ agreement.
- In the past 12 months, exports of heavy sweet and heavy sour grades have fallen almost 1mbpd from 6.6mbpd to 5.66mbpd – and spectacularly so from February…




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