By most perspectives, Trump has been a hands-off president in the foreign policy arena, with the visible exception of antagonizing Iran and fostering a withdrawal from - and then an about-face return to - Syria, where U.S. troops are now standing guard around northern Syria’s Kurdish-area oil to keep it from getting into Assad’s hands (it does, anyway). In some respects, that hands-off, zero-geopolitical-deep-state way of thinking from purely a foreign policy perspective has been a relief. In some respects, it has led to some accidental snowballing (by this, we mean random actions that are based on not clearly understanding what the consequences will be), both positive and negative.
On one hand, Trump can take credit for bringing together massive Middle East rivals - Israel and the UAE. By the same token, however, this happened largely because of Israel’s newfound power as an energy exporter - a major gamechanger for the region.
On the other hand, Trump’s move to relocate the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem was an unnecessary salvo that would ripple into divided and always fragile Lebanon, and the pressure would be too great. The entire government would fall and the country would descend into chaos. But Trump also then brokered a deal between Israel and Lebanon for talks that would finally, peacefully demarcate the maritime border between the two countries, who remain technically at war.
So, now, Lebanon - often forgotten because it has no energy status…
By most perspectives, Trump has been a hands-off president in the foreign policy arena, with the visible exception of antagonizing Iran and fostering a withdrawal from - and then an about-face return to - Syria, where U.S. troops are now standing guard around northern Syria’s Kurdish-area oil to keep it from getting into Assad’s hands (it does, anyway). In some respects, that hands-off, zero-geopolitical-deep-state way of thinking from purely a foreign policy perspective has been a relief. In some respects, it has led to some accidental snowballing (by this, we mean random actions that are based on not clearly understanding what the consequences will be), both positive and negative.
On one hand, Trump can take credit for bringing together massive Middle East rivals - Israel and the UAE. By the same token, however, this happened largely because of Israel’s newfound power as an energy exporter - a major gamechanger for the region.
On the other hand, Trump’s move to relocate the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem was an unnecessary salvo that would ripple into divided and always fragile Lebanon, and the pressure would be too great. The entire government would fall and the country would descend into chaos. But Trump also then brokered a deal between Israel and Lebanon for talks that would finally, peacefully demarcate the maritime border between the two countries, who remain technically at war.
So, now, Lebanon - often forgotten because it has no energy status - is wondering what will happen to it with the change in regime in Washington, DC.
Lebanon likely has massive offshore gas potential. If it could only get the political will together to actually start exploring in earnest. It shares a portion of the Levant Basin with Israel (and Syria) in the eastern Mediterranean, which will - without a doubt - be the next major conflict zone over natural resources as the current setup is completely isolating Turkey.
In October, Lebanon held new elections that put PM Saad Hariri back in power - just barely. This is the same Hariri who was forced to resign a year ago amid protests over corruption and economic collapse.
But the currency has collapsed (we’re talking 80% of its value lost), prices, inflation, and unemployment are soaring and stability remains elusive at best.
The hydrocarbons Lebanon so desperately needs and probably has in its own offshore waters is even further from reality at this point.
The talks with Israel are ongoing as we speak, but a deal with Israel will be a tough sell in some quarters in Lebanon. Hezbollah will revolt, and Hariri’s longevity is a major question mark. Not only will we not be seeing Lebanese oil and gas exploration deals any time soon; but we may also see an effort at peace turned into a renewed armed conflict if Hezbollah pushes the right buttons, and as Israel, basking in its newfound energy power and status, takes delivery of its first-ever warship.
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