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Bulls Optimistic, But Pitfalls For Oil Remain

Friday February 10, 2016

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.

1. 91% OPEC compliance, but Nigeria and Libya undermine deal

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- According to the latest data from S&P Global Platts, OPEC achieved a 91 percent compliance rate in January, exceeding market expectations.
- The seriousness from OPEC members is good news for oil prices, as the group cut more than 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), not far off from the 1.2 mb/d promise the group made at its November meeting.
- However, the efficacy of the deal is undermined by a few OPEC members. Libya has added 162,000 bpd since the deal was announced; Nigeria has added a more modest 12,000 bpd; and Iran has brought back 110,000 bpd.
- As such, the net OPEC cuts are closer to 800,000 bpd. Meanwhile, Libya and Nigeria, both of which are exempt from the deal, are planning to restore even more idled capacity.

2. Nigeria a major risk to oil prices

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- Nigeria’s oil production fell sharply in 2016 because of attacks from groups like the Niger Delta Avengers. Output declined from a peak of 2.2 mb/d in 2015 down to a low point of 1.4 mb/d in the summer of 2016.
- Production has…

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