Bolton Out, Iran In? Oil Prices Think So
There’s a good reason oil prices tanked on Tuesday (temporarily) and then continued to do so on Wednesday. Bolton has always been a warmonger, while Trump is a leveraged negotiator who may bring things to the brink of war but is not gunning for a conflict; rather for leverage in a high-stakes game. With Bolton out, speculators flirted with the assumption that this means a potential deal in the works with Iran or at least some sort of detente.
Israeli media is all over this, referring to Bolton as “marginalized” and suggesting this signals and end to US sanctions on Iran - an outcome that does not suit Netanyahu who, on the tailwinds created by Bolton, has become emboldened to do things like annex part of the occupied West Bank and destroy any chance of a peace deal with the Palestinians.
Trump’s announcement that Bolton is out comes after the National Security Advisory on Sunday said sanctions on European firms over Iran were “possible”. It also brings into clearer view Trump’s statement to the effect that he would be open to meeting Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Iran has played coy on this, saying the president would not meet with Trump until sanctions were lifted, but with regime-change Bolton out of the picture, Trump might just get his way. Bolton did what he was meant to do - raise tensions for leverage, but he has no further use.
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