Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
From Sudan and Libya to Bosnia, it’s been a week of war cries that threaten high-level instability which would weigh on oil and gas markets:
Just as Libya announces it will start registering election candidates in November, fighting between armed groups has caused damage to the 120,000 bpd Zawiya oil refinery, the country’s largest. Thirteen storage tanks were damaged, according to the NOC, along with damage to the refinery's main electrical transformer. At the same time, the NOC reported a leak at its Es Sider pipeline, which will take 200,000 bpd offline for up to 10 days. The skirmishes are a result of various factions attempting to stake their claims on the country’s oil ahead of Libya’s hoped-for first presidential elections, which are likely to be accompanied by bloodshed. Control of the NOC, which has recently seen attempts (so far, unsuccessful) to unseat the long-running chairman, will be considered a crucial aspect of controlling the country’s oil riches. Presidential elections planned for December 24th will be held in two stages, with runoffs set to be held after the New Year, along with parliamentary elections.
Sudan’s military, which has been in a fragile power-sharing deal with the civilian government, has staged a coup and effectively taken over the country, leading to its suspension from the African Union and rendering it deprived of World Bank aid. General Abdel Fattah…