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A Trend Reversal In Oil Markets

refinery

The bullish spirit of September has turned sour by the end of October, with both analysts and traders expecting a rather difficult 2019. More often than not one encounters global oil demand downgrades for the next year amid emerging market woes, from an almost universally accepted 1.4-1.5 mbpd we see currently forecasts in the 1.1-1.2 mbpd interval. Iran and ailing Venezuela remain the only major upward pressure factors for the time being.

(Click to enlarge)

As a consequence, Brent prices have continued to fall this week, ending it with a w-o-w decline of 6 percent at $73 per barrel. WTI saw a similar trend, with Friday trading oscilatting around $64 per barrel. Oversupply fears still loom large on the market, however, there is some upward potential, too. Next week might turn things around as the US Administration is alleged to have granted eight countries, including India, South Korea, Japan and China, a waiver to sanctions on Iran to be announced officially on Monday.

1. US Stocks rise on the brink of trend reversal

- US commercial crude stocks continued their build for the sixth week in row, this time rising by 3.2 MMbbl week-on-week to 426 MMbbl, whilst crude oil production hit 11.05 mbpd.
- Almost half of the stock rise is due to a 1.5 MMbbl Strategic Petroleum Reserve draw.
- The crude stock buildup will be further mitigated, if not reversed, in the next few weeks as refineries are brought back onstream following fall maintenance…

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