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A Critical Week For The Yemen Ceasefire

Geopolitics

It’s the 11th hour for a true ceasefire in Yemen now as the world waits to see what Saudi Arabia will do next and the Houthis continue to apply pressure. Most recently, the Houthis claimed to have launched drone attacks on Riyadh, though there has been no confirmation of this from Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-proposed ceasefire is really coming from Washington and is MBS’ means of partly repairing his global reputation by looking like the good guy in Yemen. There is a fair amount of motivation right now for the Saudis to pursue a ceasefire in a war that was supposed to last six weeks and is now in its sixth year with Riyadh having failed to achieve any of its objectives. Keep an eye on Marib province, where the oil is, and where the current Houthi offensive is focused.

About four-fifths of Libya’s divided institutions have now been unified, including the central bank, parliament, and energy agency, leading analysts to hedge on Libyan oil stability by the end of this year. We think this is a premature hedge at this point, with planned December elections an elephant (on steroids) in the room. Libya’s energy industry now is set to get $1.6 billion from the recently approved budget.

Less than a week after French Total SA said it would restart work at its giant LNG project in Mozambique after the government promised heightened security, a massive new push by insurgents is working to ensure that terror reigns and the project meets…





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