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Oil Arbitrage Economics: Heavy Crudes Get Pricier

Unascertainable times we are having on the global oil market. The struggle for Venezuela, with all its twists and turns, should be looming large as pretty much everyone tries to find out whether the Latin American country can avoid an upstream collapse and reroute its cargoes towards Asia. Yet the Venezuelan impact has so far been rather modest and crude prices have actually fallen between Monday and Wednesday.

Thus, despite some genuine bullish potential out there, Russia’s slow compliance with its OPEC/OPEC+ commitments (so far it has only cut 47kbpd from the 228kbpd it had promised in December), the rise of US crude stocks and worries about global economic growth have outweighed other factors.

(Click to enlarge)

On Wednesday afternoon Brent has traded at 61.8 USD per barrel, sliding 1 percent compared to Tuesday closing, whilst WTI crude has dropped 2 percent day-to-day to 53.5 USD per barrel.

1. US Stocks Grow Further

• US commercial crude stocks have risen by 0.919 MMbbl to 445.9 MMbbl during the week ended January 25 and are expected to grow even further for the week ended February 01.
• Most analysts estimate last week’s increase will be somewhere within the 1.5-2.5 MMbbl interval, with API putting forward the most ambitious build of 2.5 MMBbl.
• The week ended January 25 market the first gasoline stock drop following eight consecutive weeks of growth, dropping by 2.2MMbbl to 257.4…




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