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First, The Bad News…

This is my first article for Oilprice.com, so I tried to find something really upbeat to write about. I wanted to be positive and to re-assure those of you here that oil, and energy in general, is in an almost perpetual boom and that everything in the garden is rosy. I tried, I really did, but my role here is to help you make money from the energy markets, not to make you feel all warm and fuzzy, and reality kept intruding.

There are, for me, a couple of bright spots; Cobalt International (CIE), for example, which I like for the admittedly unscientific reasons detailed in this Nasdaq.com article. The thing is, however, that as I’m sure most of you are aware, the fate of most things in the energy sector is tied to the price of crude oil, particularly in the short term, and even a cursory reading of that chart tells me that further gains are unlikely.

Actually when I say “even” a cursory reading of the chart, that is not strictly true. Given that I made a living for twenty years in foreign exchange dealing rooms around the world, many people are surprised to learn that my chart analysis rarely goes beyond the basic. Those people, you see, assume that forex and all commodity markets are immensely technical. Their problem is that they haven’t met many real live, paid traders. Traders in the pit, on the floor or at the trading desk all understand one thing; the more obvious the chart pattern, the more useful it is. Prices don’t…

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