Finance / the Markets

• BP, Shell, Statoil, Platts Raided for Price-Fixing

  The European Union Commission has raided the offices of Royal Dutch Shell, Statoil and Platts over energy price-fixing concerns in an investigation that could take years to conclude. Britain’s BP, Norway’s Statoil and Shell, which is listed in London and Amsterdam, were raided on suspicion that the oil and gas giants have attempted to manipulate energy prices by colluding to report distorted prices and to prevent other companies from submitting their prices that were not in line with this alleged collusion. BP, Statoil and Shell submit their prices to Platts Market on Close (MOC), which then publishes the final trading…

• Long Term Market Forecasts Becoming Ever More Unreliable

  News of the future was, in my youth, something that one found by crossing the palm of a lady in a dark tent with a piece or two of silver (or the modern equivalent) at one of the fairs that came to town. Such opportunities still exist, with all the caveats that existed back then likely still being in force. However projecting the future, whether of the weather, the likely corn crop this year in the United States, or the production of crude oil by the nations of the world has become a much bigger business with copious tables, graphs…

• Oil Market Forecast & Review 17th May 2013

  After falling from $97.38 on May 6 to $92.40 on May 15, July crude oil rebounded on May 16 to regain almost 50% of its recent break. This turnaround was expected, but most traders were looking for a test of the retracement zone at $91.77 to $90.45 before the rebound began. Despite showing strength on the daily chart, the market is still having trouble with a pair of main tops at $98.22 and $99.77 as well as a downtrending resistance line at $97.71. Until these resistance areas are penetrated with conviction, expectations are for the market to remain in a…

• EU Raids BP and Shell Over Price-Fixing Concerns

  Following on the Libor and Euribor interest rate fixing scandals, the European Commission (EC, the executive arm of the EU) has just on Tuesday this week raided the offices of major energy companies BP and Royal Dutch Shell over allegations of price-fixing. The offices of StatOil in Norway, not an EU member, were also subject to "unannounced inspections" there.Price-fixing in this sector could inflate not only the price of gasoline at the pump and airline tickets but anything made from petroleum derivatives. These include such common materials used in everyday consumer products as plastics and wax.The concern is that the…

• JP Morgan: A New Type of Dirty Energy

  As US power plants lose money, a bit of market manipulation goes a long way … ask JPMorgan Chase.The banking giant is accused of manipulating energy prices in Michigan and California to make money-losing power plants appear more profitable to investors—and now it faces penalties from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which regulates the sale of electricity. Detailed in a New York Times report, JPMorgan Chase is accused of selling electricity to authorities in California and Michigan between 2010 and 2011 at prices calculated to appear falsely attractive.  How much did these two US states pay for this manipulate…

• What the US Dollar can Tell us about the Oil Market

  Many investors study supply and demand statistics to figure out where they think the oil price is going.But by far, the biggest factor that determines the oil price is the US dollar, says Donald Dony, who pens The Technical Speculator investment newsletter.“The US dollar is absolutely pivotal for commodity prices,” he says.  To pros in the investment game, that is a truism; obvious.  But most investors underestimate the background impact the greenback has on oil prices.And Dony expects the US dollar to keep grinding higher.“Our analysis  on the USD is looking bullish on the longer term basis—86-87 or even up…

• Short Term Oil Market Predictions from OPEC and the EIA

  Just this month Saudi Aramco announced that production had begun at their Manifa oilfield, and by July would be supplying up to 500 kbd to the new refinery that is being built at Jamail with the collaboration of Total. The first oil from the refinery is expected to ship in August, and both projects are currently ahead of schedule. Manifa will further increase in production next year, to 900 kbd, with the additional flow going to the Yanbu refinery being built with the collaboration of Sinopec. Both these refineries are designed to take heavy crude, and can also accept oil…

• Oil Market Forecast & Review 22nd March 2013

  May crude oil futures surged early last week, but the rally stalled when the market reached the lower level of our target zone at $94.44. The actual high was $94.47. This was a sign that technical traders were still in control. Based on the longer-term range of $99.10 to $89.78, a retracement zone has formed at $94.44 to $95.54. The inability to break through this zone is a strong indication that sellers are still guiding the market. The short-term range at $89.78 to $94.47 has formed a retracement zone at $92.13 to $91.57. Since the attempt to rally failed, the…

• Oil Market Forecast & Review 15th March 2013

  Oversold conditions on the daily chart and a strengthening economy helped drive May crude oil futures higher last week. The move through $92.50 confirmed the previous week’s closing price reversal bottom at $89.78, setting up the market for an eventual rally into the target zone at $94.44 to $95.54.Although the market has been showing strength over the last two weeks after a four-week sell-off, according to the latest Commitment of Traders report, crude oil remains in the strong hands of the commercial traders and these traders are on the short-side. The stats show that 51.4 percent of the market is…

• Oil Market Forecast & Review 8th March 2013

  After a five-week sell-off, April Crude Oil is showing signs of a potential short-term bottom on the weekly chart. Earlier this week it reached a low of $89.33 before a shift in the fundamentals combined with oversold technical conditions triggered the start of a rally.At the start of the week, technical oscillators and indicators were signaling the presence of oversold conditions. Although the market wasn’t really attracting buyers, it did appear to stop going down. Once it stabilized, the fundamental news kicked in which drove the market higher. Late in the week, a sharp rise in the Euro triggered a…