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Rosneft CEO Expects India’s Energy Demand to Surge

Economic growth will drive energy consumption in India significantly higher in the coming years, Rosneft’s chief executive Igor Sechin has predicted.

“Over the next five years, India is projected to continue its strong economic momentum and become one of the top three largest economies in the world with a GDP of $5 trillion, and by 2050 will overtake the US in terms of the size of the economy,” Sechin said, speaking at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, as quoted by Indian media.

By 2050, the subcontinent’s energy consumption will expand by as much as 90%, Sechin said, which would constitute one of the fastest growth rates globally. Developing countries as a whole will continue to be the biggest drivers of oil demand growth over this period, the executive said, echoing the predictions of pretty much every oil demand forecaster.

Growth in demand for oil from developing countries will also come to represent a bigger portion of total demand growth, Sechin said, projecting it at 95% of the total by 2030. The biggest share in developing countries’ demand for oil, in turn, would come from Asia, Igor Sechin also said.

In 2023, oil consumption in India hit a record high of 231 million tons, up from 219 million tons in 2022, according to data from the Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Some analysts are predicting a slowdown in demand growth in the coming years but India is building new refining capacity despite these predictions.

Government plans are to increase total capacity by 22% in five years from the current 254 million metric tons per year, which are equal to around 5.8 million barrels daily. The boost comes in response to India’s fast pace of economic growth, which is the fastest in the world. All major forecasters expect India to replace China as the biggest driver of global oil demand growth in the long term, which should happen before 2030.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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